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SpaceX Claim Intent Of Sending Crewed Mission To Mars - Warren Ellis [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
Warren Ellis

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SpaceX Claim Intent Of Sending Crewed Mission To Mars [Apr. 23rd, 2011|01:37 pm]
Warren Ellis

Right here:

"We’ll probably put a first man in space in about three years," Elon Musk told the Wall Street Journal Saturday. "We’re going all the way to Mars, I think… best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years."

Which is big talk for an operation without a crew-rated vehicle capable of direct transLunar injection, let alone transMars injection.

Their Falcon Heavy is being touted as “the world’s most powerful rocket,” but that is a carefully relative term.  The heavy-launcher field is not what it was.  The Falcon Heavy is intended to loft payloads of 117000 pounds to Low Earth Orbit.  The Saturn V could lob 262000 pounds into LEO, and chuck 100000 pounds directly into TLI.  The Falcon Heavy is perhaps the world’s most powerful rocket right now.  No-one’s going out of town on a Falcon Heavy without a lot of staging and reassembly in orbit.  At best.

(Automatically crossposted from warrenellis.com. Feel free to comment here or at my message board Whitechapel. If anything in this post looks weird, it's because LJ is run on steampipes and rubber bands -- please click through to the main site.)
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: roguederek
2011-04-23 08:46 pm (UTC)
I can't decide if he's being optimistic or delusional.
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[User Picture]From: dewline
2011-04-23 09:01 pm (UTC)
Both...or he's been doing some Serious Pre-Planning that we don't know about. Hard to tell from press releases.
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[User Picture]From: dewline
2011-04-24 12:48 am (UTC)

Of course...

...it could be both plus the pre-planning for the same reasons as above. We won't know until it either works out or blows up in the faces of people yet to be named and buried.

(And I don't like the idea of learning about it via the obituary articles at all.)
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[User Picture]From: dr_memory
2011-04-23 09:38 pm (UTC)
All true, but at the moment I put better odds on Musk doing it than anyone else, including the ESA, China and the Indians.

...which is not to say that his odds are good...
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[User Picture]From: hep
2011-04-23 11:34 pm (UTC)
i will believe his hype when he can put a fkn car on the road without it exploding and/or catching on fire randomly while driving.
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[User Picture]From: mycroftca
2011-04-24 03:23 am (UTC)
Doesn't mean it can't happen. I wish them all the best of luck.

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