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SpaceX Claim Intent Of Sending Crewed Mission To Mars - Warren Ellis [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
Warren Ellis

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SpaceX Claim Intent Of Sending Crewed Mission To Mars [Apr. 23rd, 2011|01:37 pm]
Warren Ellis

Right here:

"We’ll probably put a first man in space in about three years," Elon Musk told the Wall Street Journal Saturday. "We’re going all the way to Mars, I think… best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years."

Which is big talk for an operation without a crew-rated vehicle capable of direct transLunar injection, let alone transMars injection.

Their Falcon Heavy is being touted as “the world’s most powerful rocket,” but that is a carefully relative term.  The heavy-launcher field is not what it was.  The Falcon Heavy is intended to loft payloads of 117000 pounds to Low Earth Orbit.  The Saturn V could lob 262000 pounds into LEO, and chuck 100000 pounds directly into TLI.  The Falcon Heavy is perhaps the world’s most powerful rocket right now.  No-one’s going out of town on a Falcon Heavy without a lot of staging and reassembly in orbit.  At best.

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[User Picture]From: roguederek
2011-04-23 08:46 pm (UTC)
I can't decide if he's being optimistic or delusional.
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From: dewline
2011-04-23 09:01 pm (UTC)
Both...or he's been doing some Serious Pre-Planning that we don't know about. Hard to tell from press releases.
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From: dewline
2011-04-24 12:48 am (UTC)

Of course...

...it could be both plus the pre-planning for the same reasons as above. We won't know until it either works out or blows up in the faces of people yet to be named and buried.

(And I don't like the idea of learning about it via the obituary articles at all.)
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[User Picture]From: dr_memory
2011-04-23 09:38 pm (UTC)
All true, but at the moment I put better odds on Musk doing it than anyone else, including the ESA, China and the Indians.

...which is not to say that his odds are good...
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[User Picture]From: hep
2011-04-23 11:34 pm (UTC)
i will believe his hype when he can put a fkn car on the road without it exploding and/or catching on fire randomly while driving.
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[User Picture]From: mycroftca
2011-04-24 03:23 am (UTC)
Doesn't mean it can't happen. I wish them all the best of luck.

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